Posted on February 19, 2015 10:57:00 PM
By Imee Charlee C. Delavin, Reporter
LAST YEAR ended with Filipinos at their most optimistic in five quarters about personal prospects and the economy, according to a new Social Weather Stations (SWS) report.
This put net personal optimism score — the difference of optimists over pessimists — still at a “very high” +35 from +33 the past year and the third quarter’s +30 (39% optimists, 9% pessimists).
The survey also found 31% (from 30% in the September survey) of respondents expecting the economy to get better in the following 12 months and 15% (from 19%) saying it would deteriorate, maintaining net economic optimism score at a “very high” level though up five points to +16, from +11 in three months earlier and double the December 2013 survey’s +8.
The Philippine economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), grew by a faster-than-expected 6.9% last quarter, the quickest quarterly pace logged in over a year. While this was not enough to bring full-year GDP growth — which came in at 6.1% — within the government’s 6.5-7.5% target, the Philippines was still the second fastest-growing economy in Asia and the Pacific after China.
Asked how their lives had changed over the preceding 12 months, 29% of respondents said it had improved (gainers) and 30% said it worsened (losers), yielding a “fair” -1 net gainers score, up by seven points from the “fair” -8 (26% gainers, 34% losers) recorded in the September survey and actually the best showing since March 1987’s “very high” +11.
Sought for comment, a Palace official reaffirmed the government’s commitment to inclusive growth, while an analyst described the gains as “insignificant.”
The SWS classifies net personal optimism scores of +30 and above as “very high”; those +20 to +29 as “high”; +10 to +19 — which includes the historical median and mode, “or what is normally expected” — “fair”; +1 to +9, “mediocre”; zero to -9, “low”; and -10 and below as “very low.”
Different grading categories are used for net optimism about the economy and net gainers/losers, since results here historically “have been highly negative”: scores -30 and below are classified as “very low”; those -20 to -29 as “low”; -10 to -19, “mediocre”; and zero to -9, “fair” (“since a slightly negative score is already better than normal”). Scores of +1 to +9 are considered “high,” while results of at least +10 are deemed “very high.”
Net optimism about the economy, SWS said, refers to expectations about the general Philippine economy, while net personal optimism refers to expectations in personal quality of life.
NET PERSONAL OPTIMISM
The report said the five-point rise in net personal optimism was due to increases of 13 points in Mindanao, 10 points in the Visayas, and three points in Metro Manila, against a one-point decline in “Balance Luzon.”
Metro Manila’s net optimism score stayed “very high,” up by three points to +38 in December, from +35 recorded in the September round of the survey. SWS said it has been above +30 since March 2010, except in March 2014 when it slid to “high” +29.
In “Balance Luzon,” it remained “very high,” although down a point to +33 from +34. It has been above +30 since September 2011, SWS said.
Net optimism score in the Visayas saw an upgrade to “high” +27, up 10 points from the “fair” +17 in September. SWS said it has been above +20 in seven out of nine surveys since December 2012.
Mindanao’s net optimism score stayed “very high,” up 13 points to a new record high of +44 in December 2014 from +31 in the third quarter. The latest result surpasses the previous record high of +35 in September 2013 for this area, SWS noted.
By socioeconomic class, net personal optimism scores rose across segments.
It stayed “very high” in class ABC, up six points to +40 from +34 in September.
It also stayed “very high” in class D — or the masa — up five points to +36 in December from +31 in September. SWS said it has been at the “very high” levels of net +30 and above in 12 out 19 surveys since June 2010.
Among those in class E net personal optimism rose by a grade to “very high” +31 from the third quarter’s “high” +26. SWS said out of the 12 surveys since March 2012, it was “high” in nine and “very high” in three.
THE ECONOMY
The five-point rise in net optimism about the economy on the other hand was due to increases of 17 points in Mindanao, seven points in Metro Manila and two points in “Balance Luzon,” notwithstanding a four-point decline in the Visayas.
It stayed “very high” in Mindanao, up 17 points to +29 in December — the highest since +30 in November 2010 — from +12 in September. Out of the 19 surveys since June 2010, it was “very high” in 12 and “high” in seven others, SWS said.
It also stayed “very high” in “Balance Luzon,” up by two points to +13 from September’s +11. The latest result, SWS noted, is similar to December 2013 but below August 2012-September 2013 levels of +22 to +27.
Metro Manila’s score upgraded to a “very high” +12, up seven points from the third quarter’s “high”+5. SWS noted this is the highest since the +22 recorded in June 2013.
Visayas, however, slipped a grade to “high” +9, from “very high” +13 in September. Out of the 10 surveys since August 2012, SWS said it was “very high” in seven and “high” in three.
By socioeconomic class, net optimism about the economy stayed “very high” in class ABC, up 15 points to +29 — the highest since +47 in November 2010 — from September’s +14. It has been “very high” since August 2012, except in June 2014 when it was a “high” +3, SWS said.
Among those in class D — whose net optimism about the economy has been “very high” in 13 out of 19 surveys since June 2010 — it rose a grade to “very high”+13, from the “high” +9 in September.
The score stayed “very high” in class E, up seven points to +21 from +14. It was the highest since the +22 recorded in June 2013, SWS said, adding that out of 19 surveys since June 2010 it was “very high” in 16 and “high” in three others.
NET GAINERS
Lastly, overall net gainers score was pulled up by increases of 14 points in Mindanao and 10 points in “Balance Luzon,” combined with a one-point decrease in both Metro Manila and the Visayas.
Net gainers stayed “very high” among those in class ABC, rose by two grades in class D to “high” from “mediocre” in September, but slipped a grade to “mediocre” from “fair” in Class E.
Sought for comment, Communications Secretary Herminio B. Coloma Jr., said via text: “Filipinos’ heightened optimism on the possible improvement in their quality of life needs to be matched in equal measure by the government in terms of improved delivery of basic services, rollout of vital infrastructure projects and sustained implementation of policies founded on good governance.”
But Edmund S. Tayao, political science professor at the University of Santo Tomas, said optimism improved “because the survey was taken sometime in end-November to December, when there is a feel-good atmosphere: release of Christmas bonus, price of oil started going down, among others.”
“Basically it is because of the relaxed atmosphere altogether. The improvements are also within margins of error and single-digit difference is not actually significant. Also, if you look at previous surveys undertaken in the same period, it doesn’t tie up: while poverty and hunger was down in the fourth quarter, unemployment was up, so it’s not consistent,” he said in a phone interview.
Mr. Tayao also said survey results could also just reflect Filipinos’ inherent optimism: “It’s simply that Filipinos are always optimistic. Filipinos by nature are optimistic about the future.”
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