This much we know: President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines dislikes the United States, and is really angry that American officials have criticized his abhorrent extrajudicial killings of drug addicts and drug lords, which have left more than 1,400 people dead. What we don’t know is how far he intends to push his vision of a more independent foreign policy that is not tied to the strategic objectives of his country’s most important ally.

During a visit to Japan on Wednesday, Mr. Duterte told a group of businessmen that he wanted all foreign troops out of the Philippines in “maybe two years” and that he was willing to revoke military base-hosting agreements with the United States. It was the clearest indication yet that he may seek to renegotiate or even abrogate the 2014 treaty signed by his predecessor that allows America to use five Philippine military bases and station troops in the country for the first time in 20 years.

Such an alarming about-face would be a serious blow to regional stability and to President Obama’s policy of strengthening relations with Asian countries as a counterpoint to a newly aggressive China.

There are, however, signs that Mr. Duterte really has no clear idea of what he wants. His recent pronouncements about the United States have been threatening one moment, conciliatory the next. Last week, for instance, he announced his intended “separation” from Washington while currying favor with Chinese leaders. Once back in his hometown, Davao, he softened, insisting he did not want to cut economic and military ties with America.

Last month, he asserted that he would seek “open alliances” with China and Russia, implying some kind of security arrangement. He later explained he was talking only about economic cooperation. Adding to the confusion, Filipino officials have followed up Mr. Duterte’s aggressive statements about the United States with reassurances that while there may be some adjustments in the relationship, the bilateral alliance remains intact.

It is not unusual for national leaders to want to set their own paths; Mr. Duterte’s views reflect resentments among some Filipinos that America has not always treated their country with respect. Still, his approach is counterproductive. He may believe that by criticizing the United States he will inspire China to invest more heavily in his country’s struggling economy. But that posture generates deep concern in Washington and among Asian leaders who believe close ties with the United States are necessary to deter China from exerting hegemony over the South China Sea and its disputed islands, fishing beds and deposits of oil and gas.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan is among those leaders. He reportedly warned Mr. Duterte that whatever his disagreements with the United States, China is no substitute ally. He’s right: The only Philippine security treaty is with the United States, the two militaries are deeply entwined and millions of Filipino-Americans live in the United States.

Mr. Abe no doubt also pointed out that both Japan and the Philippines are involved in maritime disputes with China and both have a lot to lose if China ignores a ruling in July by an international court in The Hague that overruled its claims in the South China Sea. To press the point, Mr. Abe gave Mr. Duterte two coast guard ships to help protect its territorial interests.

While Mr. Duterte pledged to work closely with Japan to find a peaceful settlement of the disputes, whether he will carry through on that or will eventually sacrifice ties with the United States and Japan in favor of closer relations with China is increasingly an open question.

Source: www.nytimes.com